By Tracy Cabrera
MANILA, Philippines — The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has forecast that a very strong El Niño event is likely to emerge between September and December 2026 and may continue until the first half of 2027.
According to Ana Liza Solis, chief of PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, climate models and evaluations indicate that the current strong El Niño could intensify into a “very strong” phenomenon between September and December.
“Now El Niño is strong, and it could continue until the first half of 2027 and a very strong El Niño is likely to emerge during the September-October-November (and) October-November-December seasons,” Solis said during the agency’s climate forum.
She said that as of Sept. 21, dry conditions, dry spells, and drought were already affecting several areas in the country amid the strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific.
The areas affected by dry spells are:
Luzon: Masbate and Sorsogon
Visayas: Negros Occidental
Mindanao: Agusan del Sur, Davao City, Davao del Norte, Lanao del Norte, Sarangani, Sultan Kudarat and Surigao del Sur.
Areas experiencing drought are:
Visayas: Biliran, Bohol, Capiz, Cebu, Eastern Samar, Leyte, Northern Samar and Southern Leyte.
Mindanao: Agusan del Norte, Basilan, Bukidnon, Camiguin, Cotabato (North Cotabato), Davao de Oro, Davao del Sur, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental, Dinagat Islands, Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao del Sur, Misamis Oriental, South Cotabato, Sulu, Surigao del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur and Zamboanga Sibugay.
Areas experiencing low rainfall are:
Luzon: Albay, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes and Quirino.
Visayas: Negros Oriental, Samar and Siquijor.
Solis said a very strong El Niño could bring hotter temperatures and a significant reduction in rainfall across the country.
“This means there could be complications or severe consequences. Essentially, there is a higher probability that we will experience the impact, specifically a significant reduction in rainfall and hotter temperatures. Consequently, our agriculture could be affected,” she said.
Solis also said that by the end of December, more areas could experience dry conditions and a significant reduction in rainfall.
“Rainfall deficits have already been observed in 45 provinces in the country as of September. By the end of December, we foresee an increase in areas experiencing dry conditions. There are additional areas that will be seeing a significant reduction in rainfall,” the weather official said.
ia/xf
