By Tracy Cabrera
DILIMAN, Quezon City — The El Niño phenomenon may begin forming in July and could continue through August to October, as warmer temperatures are expected nationwide, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief, Ana Liza Solis, said monitoring of the potential El Niño started in December last year, and data indicate a rising likelihood of its occurrence this year, particularly during the August-to-October period.
Solis clarified that the early effects of El Niño may not immediately cause dry spells or higher temperatures. Instead, it could lead to heavier rainfall during the southwest monsoon, or habagat, season.
“El Niño doesn’t always mean drought. In Western Luzon, which experiences Type 1 climate during the habagat, we expect more intense rainfall. Residents should prepare for possible flooding during this period,” Solis explained.
She added that following the habagat season, rainfall may drop, potentially triggering dry conditions or drought. Historical PAGASA data suggest that if El Niño persists, parts of Luzon could experience below-average rainfall as early as the last quarter of 2026.
Solis also noted that warmer temperatures could carry into 2027, especially with the conclusion of the northeast monsoon, or amihan. “The high heat associated with El Niño could continue into next year’s dry season. If this El Niño lasts, it may influence 2027’s hot and humid conditions,” she said.
The climate chief further mentioned that the 2027 heat index might reach levels similar to the record-breaking indices of 2024, but she cautioned that the situation could change depending on the strength and duration of El Niño.
“At this stage, we have yet to see its full intensity. What we know is that there is a strong possibility of El Niño this August-to-October,” Solis emphasized, urging the public to prioritize preparation for heavy rains during this year’s habagat season.
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