Text and photo by Tracy Cabrera
Agriculture spokesperson Arnel De Mesa warns about the upcoming El Niño at the Kapihan ng Samahang Plaridel. At his right is veteran journalist Twinkle Valdez, and on the left is writer Weng Ocfemia.
RIZAL PARK, Manila — With high fuel prices driving up farm input and production costs, Department of Agriculture (DA) spokesperson and Assistant Secretary Arnel de Mesa said preparedness is key to ensuring the country’s food security.
Speaking at the Kapihan ng Samahang Plaridel at the Rizal Park Hotel in Manila, de Mesa said there is currently a stable supply of agricultural products, but warned of a possible “super” El Niño that could affect the agriculture sector toward the end of the year.
Earlier, Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. cautioned that it is no longer a question of whether the country will experience another El Niño following the 2024 episode that undermined rice harvests, but rather how intense it will be.
According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), there is a 92-percent probability of a moderate to strong El Niño developing in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Citing this, Philippine Rice Research Institute (PhilRice) Executive Director John de Leon said some global climate models even indicate a potential “super” El Niño, with projected warming of up to 2.2 degrees Celsius.
“This scenario could significantly reduce rainfall and strain water resources across key agricultural areas,” de Mesa said.
Despite this, he noted that with projections pointing to a moderate to strong El Niño, the DA has already directed managers of the Masagana Rice Industry Development Program to prepare for worst-case scenarios.
“This includes shifting to less water-intensive crops such as mung beans, adjusting planting calendars, and accelerating the rollout of solar-powered irrigation systems,” he said.
He added that the DA is coordinating with the National Irrigation Administration (NIA) to optimize water allocation and ensure irrigation systems are ready to support farmers during prolonged dry spells.
At present, agriculture officials are reviewing rainfall projections and water availability to recalibrate planting strategies and mitigate risks.
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority show that the country’s agriculture sector declined by 2.2 percent to ₱483.58 billion in 2024.
The DA and industry stakeholders attributed the sector’s poor performance to the El Niño phenomenon, a series of typhoons, and the spread of animal diseases. The sector also incurred ₱57.78 billion in losses in 2024, a 136.4-percent increase and one of the largest setbacks in recent years.
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