By Tracy Cabrera
Duterte-Padilla lead over Robredo-Aquino narrows to 12 points — OCTA
DILIMAN, Quezon City — The hypothetical 2028 tandem of Vice President Sara Duterte and Sen. Robin Padilla leads the pairing of Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Sen. Bam Aquino by 12 percentage points, according to the latest Tugon ng Masa (TNM) survey of OCTA Research.
The survey showed Duterte and Padilla receiving 48 percent of the preference, compared with 36 percent for Robredo and Aquino, while 16 percent of respondents remained undecided.
OCTA said the 12-point difference is the narrowest gap recorded between the two hypothetical tandems. In commissioned surveys conducted in 2025, the gap ranged from approximately 20 to 25 points.
The latest TNM survey was conducted from July 4 to 11, 2026, through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 probability respondents aged 18 and above.
It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level nationwide, while estimates for Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao have a margin of error of plus or minus 6 points.
OCTA stressed that the findings reflect voter preferences during the survey period and should not be interpreted as a forecast of the 2028 elections.
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