By Benjamin Cuaresma
MANILA — The Philippines has sufficient stocks of rice, corn and sugar to withstand the expected effects of El Niño, but the government is bracing for a potentially more difficult agricultural battle as drought threatens production and rising fuel and transport costs threaten to push food prices higher.
Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said Monday that the country remains food secure, with existing inventories backed by incoming harvests and government measures being prepared for areas expected to suffer the worst from the dry spell.
“We have enough stock of rice, corn, sugar,” Laurel said in an interview with Money Talks with Cathy Yang on One News.
He said poultry production remains healthy, while pork is the sector requiring closer monitoring, prompting the Department of Agriculture (DA) to assess the country’s cold-storage capacity and available pork inventories.
“We have ample supply, technically, so we’re still food secure,” Laurel said.
The agriculture chief expects the effects of El Niño to become more pronounced in the first quarter of 2027, giving the government time to strengthen food inventories, optimize production and prepare assistance for farmers in vulnerable areas.
The biggest uncertainty, however, remains the weather.
“What we cannot really predict is the weather, so that’s the major challenge,” Laurel said.
Rather than allow agricultural output to fall sharply as drought takes hold, the DA plans to intensify production in areas expected to escape the worst effects of El Niño.
Laurel said the agency is preparing a production-optimization strategy that will provide additional support to farmers in areas where water and weather conditions remain favorable.
“We are prepared and we will be doing a production optimization, giving more support to the areas that will not be affected by El Niño,” he said.
The Ilocos Region, Central Luzon and Mindoro have been identified as among the areas likely to experience the greatest impact, based on consultations involving the DA, Department of Science and Technology, state weather bureau PAGASA and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.
At the same time, the government is preparing direct assistance for farmers in areas hit by the dry spell.
Laurel said affected producers may receive cash assistance, additional fertilizer and increased seed allocations to help maintain production despite difficult growing conditions.
“We have no choice but to issue some cash assistance for the slightly hit. We are continuously giving more fertilizer; seedlings per hectare will increase, among others,” he said.
Beyond the weather itself, Laurel identified another threat to food security: the rising cost of moving agricultural products from farms to markets.
He said transportation expenses and fuel prices could influence both retail prices and farmers’ decisions on whether and how much to plant.
“The main issue actually at the moment is more of the transport and fuel that will affect prices and intention to plant,” Laurel said.
The warning comes as the agriculture sector prepares for higher production costs at a time when farmers are already vulnerable to weather-related losses.
To help farmers cope with rising fertilizer and other input costs, Laurel said the government is considering a higher buying price for palay, or unmilled rice.
He said the Philippines has enough rice stocks to carry the country through the end of the year, while another harvest season is expected to begin in September.
For the coming harvest, the DA is targeting a buying price of P21 per kilo for wet palay, higher than the previous target of P17 to P18 per kilo.
Laurel said the higher price is intended not only to provide farmers with better income but also to encourage them to continue planting despite escalating production expenses.
The government expects the coming harvest to be strong, which could provide an additional buffer against the anticipated effects of El Niño.
Recent rains have also given the government some breathing room.
Laurel said water levels in major dams have improved following rainfall from the southwest monsoon, or habagat, and Tropical Cyclone Kujira, strengthening irrigation reserves ahead of the dry period.
“Irrigation management is very critical. Luckily, the positive side of these rains is that our dams are almost full again,” Laurel said.
“So that’s very welcome despite the gloomy weather,” he added.
The improved water situation could prove critical for agricultural areas that depend heavily on irrigation once rainfall declines.
But Laurel stressed that favorable conditions today do not eliminate the risks posed by El Niño in the months ahead.
For the DA, the immediate objective is therefore clear: keep food supplies ample, protect farmers from production losses, maximize planting in areas with sufficient water and prevent fuel and transportation costs from turning a weather threat into a broader food-price crisis.
With the government expecting El Niño’s strongest effects to emerge in early 2027, the coming months will determine whether the Philippines enters the dry spell with enough food—or is forced to pay a much higher price for it.
ia/xf
