By el Amigo
MANILA, Philippines — Vice President Sara Duterte remains the frontrunner in a simulated one-on-one race for the 2028 presidency against former Vice President Leni Robredo, although the latest OCTA Research survey suggests her lead is becoming less pronounced.
The Tugon ng Masa survey found that 43 percent of respondents would choose Duterte, while 34 percent favored Robredo. Twenty-two percent said they were undecided, preferred another candidate, or declined to disclose their preference.
Compared with the previous quarter, Duterte’s support slipped from 46 percent to 43 percent, while Robredo’s rating remained almost unchanged after easing by just one percentage point.
According to OCTA Research, the increase in undecided voters may indicate that a segment of the electorate has yet to settle on a preferred candidate nearly two years before the 2028 national elections.
Despite the slight decline, Duterte continues to enjoy a comfortable national advantage.
Her strongest base remains Mindanao, where she received overwhelming support from more than three-fourths of respondents. She also led comfortably in the Visayas.
Robredo, meanwhile, continued to dominate Balance Luzon, where a majority of respondents favored her over Duterte. In the National Capital Region, both political figures were virtually tied.
The survey also showed Duterte maintaining the lead among middle- and lower-income respondents, while older Filipinos were more inclined to support Robredo.
OCTA explained that the observed changes between the first and second-quarter surveys fall within the statistical margin of error and should be interpreted cautiously. The research firm said the results point to a possible trend but do not yet establish a definitive shift in public opinion.
The July survey covered 1,200 adult Filipinos through face-to-face interviews nationwide and has a ±3 percent margin of error at the 95 percent confidence level.
Political analysts have noted that while the 2028 elections remain years away, preference surveys offer an early snapshot of public sentiment, which could still change as political alliances, candidates and national issues evolve.
elamigo/xf
