By Benjamin Cuaresma
MANILA — Chinese-backed infrastructure projects in the Philippines have sharply slowed under the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., with nearly all proposed projects remaining at the commitment stage as Manila adopts a tougher stance in defending its rights in the West Philippine Sea, according to an analyst.
Data scientist and University of the Philippines associate professor Dr. Alicor Panao said the value of Chinese financing commitments alone does not accurately reflect the effectiveness of bilateral infrastructure cooperation. Instead, he noted that the ability of projects to move from commitment to implementation and completion provides a clearer picture of the state of Philippines-China relations.
Drawing from verified records compiled by AidData, Panao said changes in project implementation have closely followed shifts in diplomatic ties between Manila and Beijing over the past two decades.
During the administration of former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo from 2001 to 2010, nearly one-third of Chinese-backed projects reached completion, while a significant number remained in the planning stage.
The pace slowed considerably under President Benigno Aquino III between 2010 and 2016 as tensions escalated in the West Philippine Sea. Only a small portion of Chinese-funded projects were completed during the period, with most failing to progress beyond initial commitments.
Relations between the two countries deteriorated following the 2012 standoff at Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal. A year later, the Philippines brought its maritime dispute with China before the Permanent Court of Arbitration.
In its landmark ruling issued on July 12, 2016, the tribunal declared that China’s expansive maritime claim under its so-called nine-dash line had no legal basis under international law. The ruling also found that China violated the Philippines’ sovereign rights within its exclusive economic zone by interfering with fishing activities, oil exploration, and constructing artificial islands.
Chinese infrastructure cooperation gained momentum again during the administration of former President Rodrigo Duterte from 2016 to 2022. More than one-third of Chinese-backed projects reached completion—the highest completion rate among the administrations examined—while additional projects advanced to implementation as ties with Beijing improved.
However, the trend shifted dramatically from 2022 to 2023 under President Marcos. According to the data, more than 95 percent of Chinese-backed projects remained at the commitment stage, only a small fraction proceeded to implementation, and none reached completion.
The slowdown coincided with the Marcos administration’s stronger response to China’s actions in the West Philippine Sea, expanded defense cooperation with the United States, and the cancellation or withdrawal of several proposed Chinese-funded infrastructure projects.
Panao said the findings indicate that Chinese-backed investments tend to progress more rapidly during periods of closer diplomatic engagement but lose momentum when maritime tensions increase.
While reduced Chinese financing limits access to infrastructure funding, he said it also lessens the country’s dependence on Beijing and provides the government with greater flexibility in pursuing an independent foreign policy and protecting national security interests.
ia/xf
