By Tracy Cabrera
DILIMAN, Quezon City — Based on data from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the country could face renewed rice and food security pressures as the risk of a very strong El Niño continues to rise.
This has prompted the government to issue an advisory urging preparations for the expected worsening El Niño scenario in the latter months of 2026, which could impact food production and energy consumption.
“The likelihood of an intense El Niño has increased, potentially stoking consumer price gains and impacting investments,” climate change experts cited.
They noted that the probability of an El Niño had increased to 82 percent from May to July 2026 and could climb further to 96 percent from December 2026 to February 2027.
They added that the possibility of a “very strong” El Niño event had also risen to 37 percent, with peak intensity expected later this year.
PAGASA disclosed that the weather pattern—characterized by heat waves, reduced rainfall, and possible droughts in Southeast Asia—could worsen inflationary pressures by reducing agricultural output, increasing food prices, and raising electricity demand.
Finance and trade analysts agreed, noting that “the Philippines faces a more challenging inflation backdrop,” while highlighting that the peso remains weak against the dollar, and that oil prices and fertilizer costs have risen sharply amid geopolitical tensions and supply constraints.
They warned that rice tariffs could increase from the current 15 percent to as high as 35 percent, potentially adding further upward pressure on food prices.
“El Niño adds another layer of pressure. Drier weather can reduce agricultural output and raise food prices,” they said.
“It can also increase energy demand, especially for cooling. Together, these factors may fan inflation and widen the trade deficit in the coming quarters.”
Meanwhile, some banking institutions said inflation could remain elevated in the coming months as the global oil crisis persists, forecasting the rate to average 6.3 percent this year.
They added that the country remains particularly vulnerable to rice supply disruptions due to its heavy reliance on imports from Vietnam and Thailand, both of which may also face weather-related production risks.
“There is also the risk of renewed export curbs from India, the world’s largest rice exporter,” they said.
In 2023, similar restrictions contributed to a sharp rise in global and local rice prices.
ia/xf
