By Benjamin Cuaresma
MANILA — The Philippines could face more intense heat, higher heat index levels and worsening rainfall shortages as the El Niño phenomenon persists and potentially strengthens in the coming months, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned.
Ana Liza Solis, chief of PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, said unusually warm ocean temperatures have been observed not only at the surface but also beneath the ocean, reaching depths of up to 300 meters.
The continued warming of subsurface waters is being closely monitored as an indication that El Niño could persist and possibly become stronger in the months ahead, Solis said.
The developing conditions could translate into significantly warmer weather as the country moves toward the next warm and dry season.
Solis said the Philippines could see record-breaking temperatures, including unusually high daytime temperatures and warmer nights. The heat index, which measures how hot conditions feel to the human body, could also climb to dangerous levels.
The most pronounced effects are expected during the warm and dry months from February through May.
But the threat is not limited to extreme heat.
Rainfall is also expected to decline across large portions of the country as the El Niño episode develops.
Solis said a significant reduction in rainfall could begin after the southwest monsoon season, with rainfall deficits potentially ranging from 40 percent to more than 80 percent in the succeeding months and possibly reaching their peak by the end of November.
The prolonged lack of rain could expand the number of areas experiencing increasingly dry conditions.
PAGASA estimates that around 44 provinces could experience dry conditions, while approximately 17 provinces could be affected by dry spells. Drought conditions have also been recorded in parts of Camarines Sur.
Solis said the effects of El Niño could persist until mid-2027.
Even if the climate phenomenon begins to weaken, its effects may continue because of what scientists call a lag effect. This means reduced rainfall and prolonged dry conditions can remain even after El Niño itself starts losing strength.
The prolonged rainfall deficit could place additional pressure on water supplies, making the condition of major reservoirs increasingly important.
Solis stressed the need to maintain sufficient water levels in dams while conditions still allow it, particularly at Angat Dam, and to manage available water resources carefully through the coming year.
With the prospect of extended dry conditions, water availability and dam management are expected to remain critical concerns as the country approaches the months of extreme heat.
PAGASA continues to monitor ocean temperatures and other climate indicators as it assesses whether El Niño will persist or intensify in the months ahead.
ia/xf
