By Benjamin Cuaresma
MANILA, Philippines — China could attempt to tighten its grip on Scarborough Shoal before the end of the decade, using years of political, legal and maritime pressure to prepare the ground for possible coercive action, a retired US Navy intelligence officer warned.
Capt. Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command Joint Intelligence Center near Pearl Harbor, said Beijing’s expanding presence of Coast Guard vessels, maritime militia and military assets around the disputed shoal suggests that China is steadily positioning itself to exert greater control over the strategic feature.
But Schuster said he does not expect an immediate military assault.
Instead, he warned that China could intensify gray-zone operations—using maritime pressure, surveillance, administrative measures and other coercive tactics—to force the Philippines to tolerate Chinese construction or other activities around Scarborough Shoal, which Manila calls Bajo de Masinloc or Panatag Shoal.
“Scarborough Shoal is the final link in the chain in South China Sea. I don’t think they’re going to do something right away, but I do think it may be a problem by the end of this decade,” Schuster said during an online forum organized by the National Youth Movement for the West Philippine Sea.
Schuster stressed that he has seen no conclusive evidence of Chinese construction on the shoal but said he would not be surprised if Beijing were already considering such a move.
Schuster said China’s growing network of radar systems, aircraft, Coast Guard ships and maritime militia vessels is giving Beijing an increasingly significant surveillance advantage across the South China Sea.
“It’s very clear that China hopes to maintain a surveillance advantage over the South China Sea so that should they decide to control it, they can,” he said.
Australian defense professor Carl Thayer, who also joined the forum, said satellite imagery has documented a rapid increase in Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia activity around Scarborough Shoal and neighboring features.
Thayer described the buildup as “very worrying,” citing instances in which the number of Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia vessels in the area had doubled or quadrupled.
He also pointed to China’s declaration of a marine protected area around Scarborough Shoal last year, which he said could form part of Beijing’s broader effort to strengthen its position over the disputed feature.
Schuster said China generally does not depend solely on military force when advancing its territorial interests.
Instead, he said Beijing can spend years establishing political, economic and legal conditions that could later support coercive action.
That means the Philippines must prepare on multiple fronts, he said, including military deterrence, diplomacy, economic cooperation, legal action and information campaigns.
Schuster urged Manila to quickly document and publicize Chinese activities and immediately lodge diplomatic protests to prevent Beijing from gaining an advantage in shaping international perceptions.
“Get the evidence that they did something. If you’ve crafted the language in advance so that you can get it released quickly, then your narrative hits the global audience before theirs,” he said.
Schuster also raised a separate and potentially longer-term concern involving Batanes, citing a recent scholarly study from Beijing University that reportedly argued that the Philippine island group was historically part of China.
He emphasized that the study itself does not amount to a formal Chinese territorial claim and does not represent an immediate threat to Philippine sovereignty over Batanes.
Still, Schuster said Beijing’s failure to publicly reject the study was noteworthy, arguing that academic, political and legal narratives can potentially be used as groundwork for future territorial assertions.
“Beijing typically doesn’t make an official claim until its military or gray zone forces are capable of initiating a pressure campaign,” he said.
Schuster does not foresee an immediate Chinese claim over Batanes, but said such a move could potentially emerge toward the end of the decade or in the 2030s.
He warned that Scarborough Shoal could therefore become a critical test of whether China can expand its strategic foothold without facing an effective deterrent.
“But they’ll occupy Scarborough Shoal first if they can get away with it. And so, in many ways, preventing the occupation of Scarborough Shoals prevents or deters the possibility of them going after Batanes,” Schuster said.
Schuster also backed the Philippines’ continuing military modernization, particularly its planned acquisition of conventional submarines, which he said could strengthen Manila’s ability to operate in the South China Sea.
He argued that the Philippines should not rely exclusively on the United States, but should continue expanding security partnerships with other countries while maintaining diplomatic and economic engagement with China.
He likewise called for deeper cooperation among ASEAN members, saying regional countries must combine maritime presence, deterrence, diplomacy, economic coordination, political cooperation and legal action.
“So presence, deterrence, diplomacy, economic, security, and political cooperation, and legal cooperation… that has to be done,” Schuster said.
The warning places Scarborough Shoal at the center of a broader strategic contest in the South China Sea, with the former US intelligence officer arguing that preventing Beijing from establishing control over the disputed feature could be crucial not only to Philippine maritime security today but also to deterring potential territorial pressure elsewhere—including Batanes—in the years ahead.
ia/xf
