By el Amigo
MANILA, Philippines — The 2028 presidential race remains wide open in one hypothetical matchup, with the Leni Robredo-Raffy Tulfo tandem holding a narrow lead over the Sara Duterte-Imee Marcos pairing, a new Octa Research survey showed.
The “Tugon ng Masa” poll placed Robredo and Tulfo at 45 percent, three percentage points ahead of Duterte and Marcos at 42 percent.
Despite the numerical advantage, Octa classified the result as a statistical tie because the gap is equal to the survey’s margin of error of ±3 percentage points.
The survey was conducted nationwide from July 4 to 11 among 1,200 adults through face-to-face interviews. Octa said the results have a 95 percent confidence level.
The latest poll reflects a slight improvement for the Robredo-Tulfo tandem from the previous survey in May, when it posted 44 percent compared with Duterte-Marcos’ 40 percent.
The geographic breakdown revealed substantial differences in support. Robredo-Tulfo scored 56 percent in the National Capital Region and 61 percent in Balance Luzon. Duterte-Marcos, on the other hand, recorded its strongest showing in Mindanao at 90 percent.
Class D respondents gave Robredo-Tulfo its strongest socioeconomic rating at 48 percent. The tandem received 41 percent among Classes ABC and 33 percent among Class E.
Duterte-Marcos registered its highest support among Class E respondents at 53 percent, followed by Class D at 41 percent and Classes ABC at 37 percent.
Age also produced contrasting results. Robredo-Tulfo’s strongest support came from respondents aged 75 and above, at 76 percent, while Duterte-Marcos was strongest among those aged 25 to 34 and 35 to 44, both at 50 percent.
The poll also showed Robredo-Tulfo performing better in urban communities, while Duterte-Marcos had the advantage in rural areas.
Among men, Robredo-Tulfo registered 48 percent support versus 43 percent for Duterte-Marcos. Among women, the respective figures were 42 percent and 41 percent.
Educational attainment also showed differing patterns, with Robredo-Tulfo strongest among vocational graduates at 54 percent and Duterte-Marcos registering its highest rating among high school graduates at 45 percent.
elamigo/xf
